THE PLAYBOOK
Energy Security, Annually Rediscovered
Energy 'security' is re-announced through high-level visits and cooperation pacts whenever regional instability threatens supply, while the underlying dependency is left exactly where it was.
The Bureau's Forecast
The Bureau expects energy security to be re-achieved around June 2026 — about once a year, the dependency unchanged between announcements.
Extrapolated from the dated record below. The Bureau guarantees the pattern, not the calendar.
The Record
- 2018 India and ADNOC (UAE) signed agreement for UAE to store 5 million barrels of crude oil at ISPRL's Mangaluru facility. Outcome: Strategic petroleum reserves established, but dependency on Strait of Hormuz remained Bureau coverage · Hindustan Times
- 2022 India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed → Bilateral trade reached nearly $100 billion in 2025. 2023 (July): PM Modi made a brief visit to UAE after Bastille Day parade → Continued high-level engagement. 2026 (January): UAE President MBZ made a three-hour standalone visit to New Delhi, signed 10-year LNG supply agreement → Followed by multiple high-level visits from Indian officials Bureau coverage · Mint
- 2023 Australian PM Anthony Albanese announced a $28.1 million investment in the Centre for Australian-India Relations (CAIR) during PM Modi's visit to Sydney, aiming to 'lift economic engagement and people-to-people engagement' and 'India literacy' in Australia. Outcome: CAIR established, CEO appointed, initial visit to India. Specific metrics for 'lifted engagement' are yet to be seen Bureau coverage · Indian Express
- 2024 Military drills and threats of closure → Strait never fully blocked by Iran, but commercial traffic drops 95% and 600 ships are stranded while costs balloon Bureau coverage · The Hindu
- 2024 MASDAR (UAE) and Rajasthan government signed agreement for 60 GW renewable energy capacity. Outcome: Feasibility study on grid interconnection initiated, but actual capacity build-out is long-term Bureau coverage · Hindustan Times