THE PLAYBOOK
Ceasefire Holds, Fighting Continues
Ceasefires are announced and immediately qualified — excluding proxies, or applying only to those not currently under fire — so the diplomacy is performed while the conflict proceeds.
The Bureau's Forecast
The Bureau logs the ceasefires as reliable; their observance, less so.
Extrapolated from the dated record below. The Bureau guarantees the pattern, not the calendar.
The Record
- 2006 UN Security Council Resolution 1701 called for Hezbollah to remove fighters south of Litani River and for Israeli withdrawal → Resolution never fully implemented, Hezbollah rebuilt infrastructure, Israel maintained military posts. 2024 (November): Ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, with Lebanese army to take over security south of Litani → Israeli strikes continued, Hezbollah rearmed, Lebanese army lacked resources/will to disarm Hezbollah. 2026 (March): Netanyahu orders expansion of operations despite ongoing ceasefire efforts, citing continued rocket fire → Escalation of conflict, more civilian casualties, buffer zone expansion Bureau coverage · BBC
- November 2024 Lebanon truce established → 15 months of near-daily violations Bureau coverage · The Hindu
- November 2024 US-French brokered ceasefire agreed, Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament required → Israel continued near-daily strikes; Hezbollah re-armed and stationed new rockets in the south Bureau coverage · BBC
- December 2025 First direct Israel-Lebanon talks in decades held at Naqoura → Israel struck southern Lebanon less than 24 hours later Bureau coverage · BBC
- February 2026 War begins, 18 ships attacked -> April 2026: Ceasefire declared, zero ships attacked but 600 trapped by overlapping military blockades Bureau coverage · BBC
- February 2026 Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, initiating conflict with US and Israel, stranding 2000+ ships Bureau coverage · BBC World
- March 2026 Lebanese government banned Hezbollah military activities and arrested ~50 suspected members → several released after paying a small fine Bureau coverage · BBC
- April 2026 Vance claims 'restraint' while 254 people are killed in a single day of air strikes Bureau coverage · The Hindu
- April 2026 Fragile ceasefire agreed, US and Iran engage in peace talks via Pakistan Bureau coverage · BBC World
- May 2026 US launches 'Project Freedom' to reopen strait, leading to renewed attacks from Iran and UAE Bureau coverage · BBC World
- 2026 Feb 28 war start → April 8 'Fragile' 14-day ceasefire announced Bureau coverage · The Hindu